Service Plays Thursday 9/2/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Dallas Braden (9-9, 3.28 ERA) Oakland A's

Braden is coming off his second complete-game shutout of the season in his last start, holding the hard-hitting Rangers to four harmless hits.

Braden is 3-1 in his last four starts, two of them lasting nine innings. He has allowed only five earned runs in the 31 innings in that stretch and hasn't allowed a home run since Aug. 6.

Look for Braden to get a Broonx cheer in his first outing in New York since telling A-Rod to keep off the mound.

Scott Baker (12-9, 4.55 ERA) Minnesota Twins

After preheating through the first half of the season, Baker has been red hot since the All-Star break.

Baker has won his last five starts, the longest streak of his career, and hasn't suffered a loss since July 19.

The right-hander has 33 strikeouts and a 3.02 ERA during his current winning streak.


Slumping

Johan Santana (10-9, 3.02 ERA) New York Mets

Santana doesn't really deserve to be lumped in with the slumpers. Perhaps he should sue his teammates for a lack of support.

Santana has lost his last three starts while posting a respectable 3.91 ERA during that span, but the Mets have scored a total of only five runs for him in those outings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (-140, 9)

September is the time we separate the pretender from the contender. The Phillies are making a magical tranformation from the former to the latter.

After a brutal homestand that saw the Phillies go 4-6 against subpar competition, they are 5-1 on their current West Coast road swing with a sweep of the Padres and a series win against the Dodgers. They pull into Colorado on a roll.

"There's the saying the season is a marathon," said Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard. "You want to try to be strong at the end of the race, and kick it in during the home stretch."

The Phillies have taken 10 of their last 12 from the Rockies, who also are on a bit of a roll but have lost shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and third baseman Ian Stewart to injuries over the past week.

The Phillies are finally healthy and hitting their high point down the home stretch. The Braves may not be catchable, but the NL wild-card is still up for grabs for a team that knows how to turn it on when it counts.

Pick: Phillies


Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (130, 9)

Banged-up Boston can just about forget about the postseason after dropping four of its last five while the Yankees and Rays have pulled away in the AL East standings.

The Sox can blame their offense for falling off the radar. They have scored just 12 total runs during their last five entering Wednesday night's game against the O's.

The Orioles have won four of their last five but have managed just 14 runs during that span. Their pitching has been stellar, especially today's starter Bradley Bergesen. He has won five straight starts and has allowed only 11 earned runs in that stretch.

For the Red Sox, Dice-K returns to the rotation after sitting out with a sore back, but he has been hot in August by going 3-2 with a 3.49 ERA for the month. He has owned the O's this season, posting a 0.47 ERA against them.

Opponents are batting just .222 against him over the past month, which is about what both teams are batting against righties over their last 10 games (Red Sox .223, O's .224).

Under is 7-0-1 in Boston's last eight games and 20-8-1 in Baltimore's last 29. This one has under written all over it.

Pick: Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' best friend: Thursday's wagering tips

Lines off the board

Florida A&M at Miami: No line or total posted.

Lines to keep an eye on

NFL

Jets at Eagles: Eagles opened as -2.5 faves but are down to -1.5 at most books.

Panthers at Steelers: Steelers opened as -5.5 favorites but have moved to -6.5 at most books. Total has leaped from 36.5 to 37.5.

Falcons at Jaguars: Jags opened as -1.5 faves but that line has doubled to -3.

Dolphins at Cowboys: Dallas opened as -2.5 faves but are down to as low as -1 at some books.

Redskins at Cardinals: Cards opened as -4.5 favorites but now can be found as high as -6 at some books.

NCAAF

Southern Miss at South Carolina: Total opened at 49 but has slipped to 45.5 at most books.

Minnesota at Middle Tennessee State: MTSU opened as -3.5 favorites but are now 3-point dogs at some books. Total dropped almost a TD from 54 to 48.5.

Marshall at Ohio State: Buckeyes opened as -24 faves but have soared to -28. Total opened at 45.5 but has climbed as high as 47 at some books.

Pittsburgh at Utah: Utes opened as -1 favorites but have jumped to -3. Total opened at 51 but has dropped to 49.

Southern Cal at Hawaii: USC opened as 18-point faves but have soared to -21.5 at most books. Total has jumped from 52 to 54 at most books.

MLB

Athletics at Yankees: Total opened at 8 but has climbed to 8.5.

WNBA

Phoenix at Seattle: Storm opened as -6 favorites but are now as high as -7.

Weather to watch

Hurricane Earl, a Category 3 storm with winds up to 125 mph, is closing in on the East Coast this weekend and could wreak havoc on games scheduled for the Northeast this weekend. That list includes MLB games like the Blue Jays-Yankees, Rays-Orioles, White Sox-Red Sox series and college football games such as Weber State-Boston College and Richmond-Virginia. Keep an eye out for postponements and/or dropping totals related to the storm.

Packers at Chiefs: 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Who's hot

Phillies are 11-2 in their last 13 on the road.

Orioles have won five of their last six.

Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. Mets.

Who's not

Red Sox have lost four of their last five.

Athletics are 1-10 in their last nine at Yankees.

Phoenix (WNBA) is 25-10 ATS in their last 35 on road.

Key stat

0-for-28 - New York Mets third baseman David Wright's batting stats at Turner Field this season entering Wednesday night's game against the Atlanta Braves. For the season, Wright is batting .292 with 21 homers and 86 RBIs.

Injury that shouldn't be overlooked

The New York Yankees activated first baseman/designated hitter Lance Berkman from the disabled list Wednesday. It remains to be seen if that is good news or bad news for Yankees fans. Berkman has been plagued by a right ankle sprain after he stepped on the foot of Kansas City Royals pitcher Bryan Bullington during a game last month. Berkman has struggled in his 12 games with New York, hitting 7-for-39 (.179) with no home runs and four RBIs.

Game of the day

No. 15 Pittsburgh at No. 24 Utah (-3, 49)

Notable quotable

"I don't need him, he needs me. Compare my achievements in boxing to his achievements. ... We agree with, you know, his demands. I wanted to know if that's his real reason [for not fighting]."

Welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao about Floyd Mayweather Jr., who has failed to agree to a super-fight between the two over drug-testing policies.

Tips and notes

Southern Miss coach Dan Fedora made waves this summer when he said his team will beat South Carolina in tonight's season opener. A better strategy might have been to sneak up on the distracted Gamecocks, who have lost tight end Weslye Saunders and could lose as many as 10 more players in an NCAA inquiry into the players living at a local hotel for reduced rent. The two-TD favorite Gamecocks could be ripe for the upset if Fedora had laid low, but a cover is not out of the question.

Southern California football coach Lane Kiffin has suspended freshman safety Patrick Hall indefinitely, saying he has not demonstrated a full commitment to being a "championship scholar-athlete." Hall did not play last year after failing to qualify academically and then suffering torn ligaments in fall camp, but his loss is just the latest in a long line of distractions for the Trojans heading into their season opener at Hawaii, a place loaded with distractions for college kids. USC is a four-TD favorite.

Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb is out of tonight's preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals due to a sprained ankle and backup Rex Grossman also is expected to sit for precautionary reasons. The Cardinals have a QB battle between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart so the QB play, if not the entire game, could be one-sided. McNabb also is listed as questionable for the season opener but that could be coach Mike Shanahan's attempt at mind games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bet

Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm (-7, 178)

The top two teams in the WNBA’s Western Conference meet in the second round of the playoffs when the Seattle Storm host the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 of the conference finals Thursday.

Seattle took over the top spot in the West from Phoenix this season, posting an impressive 28-6 record (17-15-2) and knocking off the defending league champs in all five of their head-to-head meetings, covering the spread in four of those showdowns. The Storm defeated the Los Angeles Sparks in two straight games in the opening round of the playoffs, going 2-0 ATS.

"I'm glad that (first) series is gone because it means we advanced, we had a few extra days to prepare for Phoenix and we're ready for this round," guard Tanisha Wright told the Seattle Times. "We know Phoenix is a good team. They run the floor and get shots up and they have great individual players, so it's going to take a lot of playing good one-on-one defense so we don't have to force a lot of rotations."

The last time these two Western powers met, Seattle stole a 78-73 win in Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog despite cutting many of their starters minutes in order to rest for the postseason.

Pick: Seattle -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFLX


Dunkel

New England at NY Giants
The Giants look to wrap up the preseason against the Patriots and build on their 3-0 ATS record in their last 3 preseason games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. New York is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3). Here are all of this week's preseason picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

Game 101-102: Buffalo at Detroit (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 116.939; Detroit 119.981
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 34
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New England at NY Giants (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 120.666; NY Giants 125.302
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Over

Game 105-106: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 121.751; Indianapolis 111.817
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 10; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: NY Jets at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.853; Philadelphia 119.126
Dunkel Line: Even; 31
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 34
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+1 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Atlanta at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.844; Jacksonville 122.949
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-2 1/2); Under

Game 111-112: Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.398; Pittsburgh 125.414
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+5 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: New Orleans at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 121.972; Tennessee 130.264
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7); Over

Game 115-116: Tampa Bay at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 119.594; Houston 119.876
Dunkel Line: Even; 34
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 117-118: Green Bay at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 121.462; Kansas City 117.548
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 5 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+5 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Chicago at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 121.485; Cleveland 118.125
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 37 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under

Game 121-122: Miami at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.341; Dallas 125.819
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 34 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Baltimore at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 128.223; St. Louis 119.766
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 125-126: Denver at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.461; Minnesota 124.568
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 32
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: San Diego at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 122.918; San Francisco 127.970
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5; 39
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Washington at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.127; Arizona 122.181
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Seattle at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.387; Oakland 125.564
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 40
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over

 

[PeteEzra]

Mitch Andrews

$2200/$2000
136 Ohio State -28.5

With nine returning starters on offense lead by QB Terrell Pryor who dominated Oregon in the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes are serious title contenders this season. The Buckeyes defense is sharp as well with a fierce secondary that features three senior NFL prospects including the best defensive end in the nation Cameron Heyward. The Marshall defense is getting hurt hard by injuries and with a new head coach at the helm they will find themselves hopelessly outclassed. With the 'U' on the schedule for the Buckeyes next week, we wont lay too much if we catch the Buckeyes looking ahead.


$3300/$3000
143/144 Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State Over 48.5

For the Blue Raiders eight offense starters return this year including senior QB Dwight Dasher who lead an offense surprisingly ranked 7th in the nation last season in total offense. Minnesota returns just two starters and no linemen on defense but has strength in this years offense returning nine starters with the offensive line intact. I expect this game to finish in the high 60's with a shootout starting in the first quarter.


*Bonus Play *

139 Pittsburgh +3

Utah is talented on offense returning twelve starters including six all-MWC performers but are missing a lot on the defense side. The Utes lost its top four tacklers from 2009 and has to replace seven starters on defense, including all three at linebacker and three in the secondary. Projected starter at rover JJ Williams is out with a foot injury, leaving Matt Martinez and Chaz Walker to start alongside converted quarterback Chad Manis. Tackle Koa Misi is also gone, along with his 4.5 sacks. The Panthers only return eleven starters this season but return a lot of quality including the best freshman in the nation last season RB Dion Lewis (1,799 yards 17 TD's). The key in this match-up is that Pittsburgh has a deep, talented defense led by pass rushing defensive end Greg Romeus, who helped Pitt lead the nation in sacks last year. The Panthers, who play a pro-style defense and are known for their aggressiveness, were a top 20 team in scoring defense and rushing defense and No. 23 in total defense. The defense received a big boost when left defensive end Jabaal Sheard was reinstated after being suspended for an altercation during the off-season. It's tough to back an inexperienced quarterback (Started nine games) in a hostile environment but I expect Lewis to get the ball most of the time and run all over this Utes defense. Utah has won 21 of 22 at home versus non-conference opponents and the visiting team hasn't won since Sept. 8th 2007 but we like our chances today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

A Redd

50 DIMES Southern California Trojans

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (RAS)

1 UNIT #146 UAB -13
1 UNIT #178 Oklahoma St. -14'
1 UNIT #190 Fresno St. PK
1 UNIT #137 N. ILL/IA St. OVER 48'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football

Southern Mississippi at South Carolina

The Gamecocks look to take advantage of a Southern Miss team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games versus the SEC. South Carolina is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Gamecocks favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-14). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (8/30)
Game 133-134: Southern Mississippi at South Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 82.483; South Carolina 99.309
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 17; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 14; 47
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-14); Under

Game 135-136: Marshall at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 80.268; Ohio State 107.213
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 27; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 29; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+29); Over

Game 137-138: Northern Illinois at Iowa State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 82.698; Iowa State 84.094
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+3);

Game 139-140: Pittsburgh at Utah (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 94.538; Utah 97.633
Dunkel Line: Utah by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Utah by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-2 1/2); Under

Game 141-142: USC at Hawaii (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 96.750; Hawaii 78.951
Dunkel Line: USC by 18; 57
Vegas Line: USC by 21; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+21); Over

Game 143-144: Minnesota at Middle Tennessee St. (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 87.152; Middle Tennessee St. 83.246
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under

Game 145-146: Florida Atlantic at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 69.029; UAB 85.958
Dunkel Line: UAB by 17; 48
Vegas Line: UAB by 15; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-15); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (8/30)

Game 301-302: Presbyterian at Wake Forest (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 39.476; Wake Forest 91.468
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 52
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 303-304: Florida A&M at Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 54.751; Miami (FL) 100.532
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: SE Missouri State at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 48.422; Ball State 74.194
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 26
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 307-308: Hampton at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 48.332; Central Michigan 95.375
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Rhode Island at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 52.489; Buffalo 81.618
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 29
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 311-312: Murray State at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 44.659; Kent State 77.280
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 32 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 313-314: Towson at Indiana (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 46.219; Indiana 88.107
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 42
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 315-316: Norfolk State at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 55.100; Rutgers 95.218
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 40
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 317-318: SE Louisiana at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Louisiana 59.242; Tulane 67.321
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 319-320: North Dakota at Idaho (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 63.826; Idaho 79.929
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 16
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 321-322: Eastern Washington at Nevada (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 73.012; Nevada 100.842
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 28
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

OTHER GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (8/30)
Albany at Maine (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 55.416; Maine 73.202
Dunkel Line: Maine by 18

Eastern Kentucky at Missouri State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.840; Missouri State 65.822
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 12

Valparaiso at Western Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 17.135; Western Illinois 56.048
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 39

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Bovi
xNFL

Detroit Lions -4
NY Jets +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's College FB Trends

SOUTHERN MISS at SOUTH CAROLINA...USM is a solid 15-8 vs. the line away from Hattiesburg since ‘07. Note, however, that South Carolina HC Steve Spurrier has won and covered openers the past two seasons and did cover all 3 on line vs. non-SEC foes in reg. season LY, but he is a subpar 3-6 laying 7 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to USM, based on recent trends.

MARSHALL at OHIO STATE...Doc Holliday debut as Marshall HC. Under Mark Snyder, the Thurndering Herd was only 4-10 vs. line as DD visiting dog from ‘05-09. Marshall has also been a decidedly subpar 1-8 vs. the line on the road vs. non-CUSA foes since ‘06. Meanwhile, Ohio State's Jim Tressel is 41-21 vs. the number overall since ‘05, but his numebrs are not quite as compelling laying heavy lumber. as the Buckeyes are only 8-9 laying DDs at the Big Horseshoe since ‘07. Tressel also just 5-5 laying 20 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA STATE...Interest intersectional pattern involving Northern Illinois, which has covered 7 straight as a regular season visitor vs. non-MAC foes. Although the Huskies’ overall spread mark away from home is nothing special the past few yeaers (only 9-14 since ‘07). Iowa State's Paul Rhoads recorded a solid 8-4 mark vs. the line in first season at Cyclone HC last year, including 4-1 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to NIU, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at UTAH...Pitt has posted some positive numbers lately on the road and as a dog for HC Dave Wannstedt, as the Panthers are 9-4 as a dog since ‘07 and 7-3 as a visiting dog that span. Overall, Wannstedt's Pitt is 12-6 overall vs. the spread as a visitor since ‘07. Note that Utah is just 1-4 vs. the line in openers since HC Kyle Whittingham took over in 2005, and the Utes are just 2-5-1 vs. spread against non-MWC foes at Rice-Eccles Stadium since ‘05. Utah is also a modest 5-5 as Salt Lake City chalk the past two years. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at HAWAII...Lane Kiffin makes his debut as Southern Cal HC, and to this point we don't think he has said anything to infuritate Hawaii or Warrior HC Greg McMackin. Note that Hawaii was 0-3 getting DDs at Aloha Stadium LY, and dating back to the June Jones era, Warriors only 1-5 getting DDs in Honolulu since ‘05. The Warriors are also just 3-6 last nine vs. line hosting non-WAC foes. As for Kiffin, his Tennesse team was 2-1 vs. the line laying 20 points or more LY, but note that SC (under Pete Carroll) is just 1-5 its last 6 laying 20 or more away from Coliseum. The Trojans, however, have suffered most of their recent pointspread setbacks in Pac-10 play, as under the departed Carroll they were 9-2 vs. line in their 11 tries vs. non-conference foes. Tech edge-SC, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Tread carefully here, as MTSU will be without suspended startign QB Dwight Dasher, who keyed the Blue Raider renaissance last season. That included MTSU covering its last 7 games in '09. In addition, the Blue Raiders are also 8-3 vs. the numebr their last 11 vs. non-Sun Belt foes. As for Minnesota, note the Golden Gophers have dropped 11 of their last 17 spread decisions since mid ‘08, and are just 3-8 vs. spread in non-conference play under HC Tim Brewster since ‘07. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UAB...The home team has won and covered emphatically the past two years in this series, with UAB winning big 56-29 in ‘09 after FAU scored a 49-34 win the previous year at Fort Lauderdale. Owl HC Howard Schenellenberger, however, has an enduring negative trend as a visitor vs. non-Sun Belt foes, dropping all three such spread decisions last season, and now 1-14 vs. the number his last 15 visiting non-Belt opposition. As for the Blazers, they're actually 4-1 in rare chalk role under HC Neil Callaway since ‘07, although he’s 0-1 laying DDs (no cover laying 11 vs. SMU LY). Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on Schnellenberger's extended woes vs. non-Belt foes on road.

ARIZONA at TOLEDO...Arizona HC Mike Stoops is only 7-12 vs. line as visitor and 2-5 as visiting chalk since ‘07. Stoops also 0-4 vs. line as non-conference visitor since ‘06, and the Cats are just 1-6 against points in that role since ‘02. Arizona also hasn’t covered laying 7 or more on road since a 1998 game at San Diego State.! Meanwhile, Toledo is only 9-16 as dog since ‘07, although not-so- bad 5-4 in that role at the Glass Bowl the past three years. But the Rockets are 7-1 vs. the line at the Glass Bowl vs. non-conference opposition since ‘01 (note that the Ohio State loss was played at Cleveland LY). Tech edge-Toledo, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher

Bos (-140) over BAL

 

[Dr.T]

Red Dog Sports

USA vs. Tunisia (FIBA)


9:30am eastern (Thursday 9/2/2010)

Tunisia +45.5 (1 unit)
This is the 5th game in 6 days for these teams. The USA has wrapped up their group while Tunisia is going home. The USA should play everybody and be happy with a win in the range of 30-40 points. The USA just beat Iran by 26 (81-55) and have won by 28, 22, 2 and 26.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Best Of The NFL

The pro football season kicks off next week when the Vikings travel to the Saints in a rematch of the NFL Championship thriller. Here is a look at some of the best of the NFL, and remember that the AFC has won 9 of the last 13 Super Bowls.

Ravens (10-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2009): This is still a talented team with a monster defense that is capable of beating anyone. The offense has QB Joe Flacco (3,613 yards, 21 TDs, 12 picks) and adds a terrific weapon in WR Anquan Boldin. The ground attack is solid behind Ray Rice (1,339 yards, 5.3 ypc) and Willis McGahee (544 yards, 5.0 ypc).

The Ravens' defense allowed 93 yards rushing per game (No. 5), and the pass �� � D' was No. 8, anchored by Haloti Ngata and MLB Ray Lewis and they add mammoth Alabama NT Terrence Cody through the draft. Coach John Harbaugh is 23-13-1 ATS in the NFL.

NY Jets (11-8 SU/ATS): The Jets are the team everyone's talking about, from a TV show on HBO, to the bombast of sexy Rexy Ryan and the influx of talent (and characters), this will be a fascinating team to watch. On the plus side, they had the No. 1 defense in the NFL, the top ground attack and add pieces like WR Santonio Holmes, CB Antonio Cromartie, DE Jason Taylor and RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

On the cautious side, QB Mark Sanchez left school early and is only in his second year, off a poor rookie campaign with 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This team was only 9-7 in the regular season before catching fire in the playoffs, with blowout losses to the Patriots (31-14) and Colts (30-17). Remember Eric Mangini had a great first year coaching the Jets ( �� � Mangenius �� � ), and it was all downhill after that.

Colts (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS): Indy always shows nothing in the preseason, then comes out like gangbusters when the games mean something. Indy finished 9th in total offense, 18th in total defense and made it to the Super Bowl. They won a string of close games because of the golden right arm of Peyton Manning (33 TDs and 16 picks), the league's only four-time MVP.

The Colts still need to bulk up at defensive tackle, giving up 126.5 yards rushing per game, 24th overall. This defense is predicated on speed, led by 2007 defensive MVP safety Bob Sanders, age 29. The Colts have been an exceptional road team, and last year went a sizzling 7-1 SU/ATS away from home.

Cowboys (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS): Who wouldn't want all the talent on this team? 30-year old QB Tony Romo cut down his turnovers last year with 4,483 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks. The ground game was 7th overall, averaging 131.4 yards. They have a strong one-two punch with workhorse 27-year old RB Marion Barber (932 yards, 4.4 ypc) and Felix Jones.

The wide receiver corps is loaded and adds Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State), who we didn't get to see in preseason. Anthony Spencer and Demarcus Ware (11 sacks) lead a dynamite defense that gets after quarterbacks. So when are they going to win a big playoff game? That's the question Jerry Jones must be wondering about underachieving Coach Wade Phillips.

NY Giants (8-8 SU/ATS): The Giants won the title during the 2007 season and were the dominant team in 2008 before getting upset in the playoffs, so last season's 8-8 campaign was a surprise. QB Eli Manning (4,021 yards, 27 TDs, 14 picks) had a strong campaign but had to throw it often because the defense allowed a ton of points. They hope to get back to a more balanced offense.

The defense got rid of coordinator Bill Sheridan, so Coach Tom Coughlin made a move fast, bringing in defensive coordinator Perry Fewell for 2010. Fewell is a fiery motivator, cajoling, shouting with an in-your-face style that is all about aggressive guidance and he says his 2010 defense will attack. There is plenty of talent for this team to return to the postseason.

Vikings (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS): While the defense ranked 6th overall, the offense ranked fifth, including 8th in passing. Coach Brad Childress seemed to have a battle at times with QB Brett Favre over control of the offense. Childress prefers a controlled, West Coast style, while Favre loves to mix it up and take shots down field. Favre appeared to win down the stretch, as the Vikings were more aggressive, scoring 30, 44, 34 and 28 in their last four games. The Vikings were 9-0 at home last season. Think they would have preferred to play the Saints there than in New Orleans?

Saints (17-2 SU, 10-9 ATS): The rules changes the NFL made over the last six years was designed to help offenses, so it's not a surprise that a pair of dynamite QBs and offensive teams met in the Super Bowl. The defending champion Saints are again loaded on offense, led by QB Drew Brees. He has so many weapons to work with and the defense improved enough under Greg Robinson with his aggressive, attacking style. They are the NFC favorites in Las Vegas, but will carry the bulls-eye burden of defending champs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFB Betting Preview

Southern Mississippi (0-0) at South Carolina (0-0) Preview

To steal a line from the great wordsmith Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

No, your eyes do not deceive you. For the third straight year South Carolina will open the college football season on a Thursday night in front of a national television audience on ESPN. The only thing that has changed is the opponent - the past two seasons the Gamecocks faced NC State and this season they welcome the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss to Williams-Brice Stadium.

After last year’s “thrilling” 7-3 victory over the Wolfpack, I’m kind of surprised Spurrier’s boys got invited back to kick off the season but I guess all that money Under Armour spends on ESPN gets them some extra benefits.

Seriously though, with nine starters back, including QB Stephen Garcia, South Carolina should be improved on offense. That said, word out of Columbia is that stud TE Weslye Saunders will miss this game due to a suspension. Spurrier has been mum on the exact details of Saunders' suspension but it’s clear the NFL prospect is in his doghouse and maybe the NCAA’s. While Garcia will miss the skills of Saunders, he has a pair of very talented wideouts in sophomores Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley who should give him plenty of opportunities to throw down the field.

Not that the entire South Carolina attack will be vertical. The Gamecocks can run the ball and will definitely give Southern Miss a taste of the “WildCock” formation where the ultra-talented and athletic sophomore CB Stephon Gilmore takes direct snaps. Also, keep an eye on true freshman RB Marcus Lattimore, who is expected to pay big dividends this season.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves and start gushing about the potential of the SC offense, let’s remember who the opponent is in this game. For those lacking in the history department, it’s important to note that Southern Miss is one of the more decorated programs in college football over the past 15 years or so. The Golden Eagles have 16 straight winning seasons, a streak that only Florida State (33 yrs), Florida (22yrs), and Virginia Tech (17yrs) can best. That’s pretty good company to keep when you are talking college football.

Head coach Larry Fedora, who came to USM a couple years ago after a successful stint as the Offensive Coordinator at Oklahoma State, will look to keep that streak alive in his third season in Hattiesburg. Despite its most famous football alum being QB Bret Favre, the Southern Miss program has been built around a nasty defense. This season should be no different as Fedora will lean on his nine returning starters on defense, including LB Korey Williams, to win ballgames.

On offense, the Golden Eagles only get three starters back but that group includes the talented QB Austin Davis who missed most of last year with a foot injury last season. The junior is back to 100% and ready to add to the 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns he racked up in just five games last season. Fedora has to be thrilled with the depth he has at QB as backup Martevious Young filled in quite capably in the absence of Davis last season and is a quality insurance policy for 2010.

No matter who is under center for Southern Miss, you can bet they will be looking early and often for WR DeAndre Brown. At 6'6", 230 pounds, the junior wideout is unquestionably one of the more dominating physical presences you will see catching balls on a Saturday or Sunday for that matter and NFL scouts are drooling over his potential. Brown will likely be locked up all night with Gilmore and it will be a great matchup to watch.

Of course, Davis will need time in the pocket in order to throw down the field and with a rebuilt offensive line in front of him, the Southern Miss signal caller could be scrambling quite a bit Thursday night. The play of the USM offensive line against a veteran and talented South Carolina front featuring DT Travian Robertson, Cliff Matthews, Ladi Ajiboye, and Devin Taylor could be the story line that determines this game. If Southern Miss can handle the seven returning starters on South Carolina’s defense, then the Golden Eagles should be able to hang with the home team all night long.

In 2009, Southern Miss was 6-5 ATS with a 3-3 mark on the road, while South Carolina was 7-4 ATS with a 4-2 mark at home.

USC at Hawaii Preview
By Brian Edwards

Lane Kiffin inexplicably got his first head-coaching job from Al Davis before the 2007 season. With the Raiders for just 20 games, they posted an abysmal 5-15 record on Kiffin’s watch.

Dismissed just four games into the 2008 campaign, Kiffin had three months to jockey for a head-coaching job at the collegiate level. When Phillip Fulmer’s tenure at Tennessee went stale and the masses up on Rocky Top demanded that he step aside, AD Mike Hamilton pulled the trigger.

In doing so, UT got rid of class, integrity, leadership and experience. In his search for a replacement, Hamilton went looking for youth, flash and excitement. He found it in Kiffin, who sold Hamilton a bill of goods that included a package deal for recruiting ace Ed Orgeron and legendary NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.

Hamilton bit on Kiffin’s pitch hook, line and sinker. He got the boosters to pony up for the nation’s most expensive coaching staff. Hamilton allowed his brash new coach to make a fool of himself and the university by falsely accusing Florida of recruiting violations, while racking up six secondary NCAA violations before coaching his first game for the Volunteers.

During a 7-6 season, Kiffin chirped more about moral victories in close losses to Alabama and Florida than anything of substance. But 14 months into his stay in Knoxville, Kiffin bolted for what he called his ‘dream job’ at USC, leaving behind broken promises and a lingering NCAA investigation.

Shortly after taking over at Heritage Hall, USC got hammered with the worst penalties the NCAA has dealt out since giving SMU the ‘death penalty’ in the early 1980s. The Trojans can’t go to a bowl game in 2010 or 2011, and they’ve had 30 scholarships (10 each for the next three incoming classes) stripped away.

The sanctions prompted OT Seantrel Henderson, who many recruitniks tabbed as the premier player in the 2010 class, to transfer to Miami. Although an appeal of the penalties is still pending, Kiffin and his staff were clearly caught off guard by the magnitude of the sanctions and have a much tougher challenge in front of them in the coming years.

Nevertheless, USC still goes into its Week 1 opener at Hawaii as a heavy favorite. Most books opened the Trojans as 18 ½-point favorites earlier this month, but that number is already up to 21 and rising. As of Tuesday afternoon, the total was 54 at most spots.

USC finished 2009 with a 9-4 straight-up record and an anemic 4-9 against-the-spread ledger. Meanwhile, Hawaii went 6-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.

The Trojans return five starters on each side of the ball, including sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley, who started 12 of 13 games as a true freshman. Barkley threw for 2,735 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he was intercepted 14 times.

USC’s leading rusher (RB Joe McKnight) and receiver (WR Damian Williams) have departed. Senior RB Allen Bradford will step up to take the bulk of the carries after rushing for eight TDs and averaging 5.8 yards per carry last season.

Greg McMackin’s squad has five starters on offense and seven on defense returning. However, a pair of starters on the offensive line will be missing Thursday night. Junior center Matagisila Lefiti is out for the first three games of the season, while junior OG Brett Leonard isn’t expected to return until early October.

Junior Bryant Moniz has been named the starting QB for the Warriors, who won four of their last five games with Moniz under center last year. The lone loss in that stretch came against a Wisconsin team that was playing extremely well down the stretch.

Moniz posted a 14/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. He has his favorite target and one of the WAC’s premier wideouts back in the mix. That would be senior Greg Salas, who had 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs in ’09. Also, senior WR Kealoha Pilares returns after hauling in 66 catches for 690 yards and four TDs last season.

Hawaii owns a 4-4 spread record in eight home underdog situations since McMackin took over for June Jones in ’08. However, the Warriors are 0-3 versus the number as double-digit home ‘dogs.

USC was an atrocious 1-5 ATS as a road favorite last year and has failed to cover the number in nine of its last 12 road ‘chalk’ spots.

These schools met in the 2005 season opener with the Trojans rolling to a 63-17 victory as 36-point home favorites. They have won all six all-time meetings against the Warriors, scoring 60 points or more in the last three encounters.

ESPN will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Alabama RB Mark Ingram, will miss this week's opener against San Jose St. after injuring his knee at practice Monday afternoon. Ingram had the knee scoped on Tuesday and will miss at least one game, possibly more. With that said, there's no reason to downgrade the Tide because it has the nation's best back-up RB in Trent Richardson.

Oregon St. owns a 9-2 spread record in its last 11 games as an underdog. Since 2005, the Beavers have won outright as double-digit 'dogs three times. They are catching 13 1/2 against TCU at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday night.

Utah is just 2-4 ATS as a single-digit home favorite during Kyle Whittingham’s first five years at the helm. The Utes will host Pitt as three-point home favorites Thursday at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. Versus will have the telecast.

Pitt senior DE Jabaal Sheard is ‘out’ at Utah due to a suspension. Sheard had 42 tackles, five sacks and five tackles for losses last season.

Most books opened Northwestern as a three-point road favorite for its lid-lifter at Vandy, but the number was at five or 5 ½ as of Tuesday afternoon. This line move is probably due to a knee injury sustained by Vandy sophomore RB Warren Norman, who is ‘out’ this week. As a true freshman last year, Norman returned three kickoffs for touchdowns and also rushed for 783 yards and three TDs. He averaged 5.4 YPC on an offense that scored more than 13 points just four times.

Much of the pregame chatter about personnel for Saturday’s UNC-LSU game has been focused on the expected suspensions for the Tar Heels. However, the Tigers are going to be missing a few players as well. Starting junior center T-Bob Hebert (the son of Bobby, who played QB for the Saints and Falcons) is suspended for an off-season arrest, while back-up WR Chris Tolliver is ‘out’ with a concussion and back-up free safety Karnell Hatcher is ‘out’ with a knee injury.

Going into this week, there were 15,000 tickets available for the start of the Jimbo Fisher Era at Florida St. In fact, hotels in Tallahassee have a deal for free tickets for those that rent a room for the weekend. Now I know Samford doesn’t exactly get the blood flowing for a Week 1 game, but seriously? This reminds me of when Steve Spurrier was at UF and what he would say to the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi in the week leading up to the Gators going to Doak-Campbell Stadium: (Spurrier twang: “Hey Mikey! You think they’re going to sell it out up there in Tallahassee this week?) Of course, both the ‘Noles and Gators would usually be in the top-five for this showdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chad Greene

Mets/Braves UNDER 6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

hustlethebookie

Play of the Day: Mets over Braves

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rockdemansports

nfl x - bills - under 38
cf -- minney -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Outlaw Sports Advisors

Rockies - 1st 5 innings